Back in April, I spoke with Fox Business. I said that within a year corporate bonds are going to get away with paying at an even lower interest rate than government bonds. People think corporate bonds are a better risk. This is happening now. I think a big bull run is on the way. Read [...]
Since Benjamin Bernanke announced QE 3 last month, there has been much debate surrounding the effectiveness of the first two quantitative easing programs. Leader Capital follows excess banking reserves to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. Open market purchases should, in theory, increase the monetary base and create demand for goods and services. However… Read [...]
Spanish Bank Bailout. Broad European Recession. Social Unrest. Systemic Unemployment. The headlines would indicate that the environment across the pond is getting worse. However, the financial markets are telling a much different story. Read the full blog post on the Leader Capital Blog.
The above chart shows the S&P 500 (left axis) and an under-utilized index, called the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index (right axis). The Index measures economic data relative to current analyst expectations. I have included the 50 day moving average (black line) to smooth the data. The red line is zero, and represents times when economic [...]
Jeffrey Gundlach was interviewed on CNBC today and stated that he thought the ten year treasury has put in a secular bottom at 1.38% on July 25th. He also stated that his one year target is 100 bps higher than the current 1.78%, and that his target may be hit before year end. Read the full post [...]
Piper Jaffray recently published a piece called SPX 2000 The Great Equity Rally. They cite similarities between the end of the last secular bear market of the 70′s and the one today, and conclude that we are about to embark on the next substantial Bull Market run.Read the full post on the Leader Capital Blog. that [...]
The press has been quick to comment on the record low yields of corporate bonds and how they represent a corporate bond bubble. However, the above chart shows a much different story. The chart is the spread of the 10 year BB Composite (constructed by Bloomberg) over the 10 year treasury yield. The spread made [...]
Given the recent run-up in interest rates, investors have started to contemplate the asset classes that may perform poorly in a rising rate environment. The 10 year treasury bond is still only yielding 1.80% and it is still well beneath its 50 month moving average at 2.89%, which has provided resistance over the last five [...]
Over the last couple of days there have been an abundance of headlines marveling at the recent high level of corporate debt issuance. Last Friday, Bloomberg published an article entitled, “U.S. Beats World with Most Offerings Since March.” The article focused on the recent narrowing of corporate spreads, and the abundance of offerings that have [...]
European Investment Strategy June 29 (Bloomberg) — Chad Deakins, an international-equity fund manager for RidgeWorth Capital Management Inc., and John Lekas, chief executive officer of Leader Capital Corp., talk about investment strategy for Europe. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/european-investment-strategy-q7TsV1CJT86udSE7K8UFGA.html